What is the spatial distribution of expected COVID-19 related unemployment and where should job creation stimulus packages be targeted to address this? In March we modeled the sobering job loss predictions across Australia to identify key places for stimulus consideration.
COVID-19 related employment loss is predicted to impact on average 8-10% of the current workforce in most regions of Australia over the coming 12-18 month period.
Rates and numbers of COVID-19 related unemployed will vary significantly across the continent in part due to employment levels across different industrial sectors. Workers in the travel, food and accommodation, arts and recreational services and retail sectors are the most directly affected by business restrictions and border closures and are likely to be worst affected.
While capital cities are expected to experience the largest unemployment numbers, workers in several regional and rural areas, identified in this paper will be amongst the hardest hit.
Tourism dependent regions have the highest predicted rates of employment loss proportionate to their workforce (e.g. 17% Port Douglas, 16% Whitsundays, 14% Surfers Paradise, 14% South East Tasmania). These regions are particularly vulnerable to the economic impacts of COVID-19 due to high reliance on industries most impacted by COVID-19 restrictions and the high proportion of short-term casuals who work in tourism related sectors.
There is significant overlap between rural and remote areas predicted to experience above average employment loss and communities that are especially vulnerable to the economic impacts of COVID-19 due to high underlying rates of unemployment, less diverse local economies and/or the recent impacts of drought and bushfires.
